THE KENTUCKY DERBY – AT 9:18 A.M. ET:  One of the major Senate races is in Kentucky, where Dems are trying to knock off Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who dreams of being Senate majority leader next January.   It's close, and the Dems are writing checks.  From Fox: 

Even as most polls show Mitch McConnell holding the lead against challenger Alison Lundergan Grimes, the prospect of knocking off the Senate's top Republican is proving too much for Democrats to resist.

Senate Democrats' campaign arm, in the closing month of the Kentucky race, is making a major bet on the contest. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) recently threw $1.4 million behind their candidate -- this, on top of the half-million reportedly already spent on the race.

The party clearly is hoping for a game change. The two candidates will meet for their only debate on Monday night. But outside of that, the race largely will play out on the airwaves across Kentucky.

The $1.4 million from the DSCC funded an ad buy painting McConnell as a Washington insider who is abandoning Kentucky...

...The race is close, but a Real Clear Politics average of recent polling has McConnell up by 3 points. And although a Bluegrass Poll last week had Grimes edging McConnell by 2 points, a Fox News poll the same week showed McConnell leading 45-41 percent.

Political forecasters still think McConnell has a good shot at keeping his seat. The Rothenberg Political Report lists the race as "lean Republican," which is in line with most other predictions from similar outfits.

COMMENT:  Grimes has hurt herself in the last week by refusing to stay if she voted for Obama.  She cited the "sanctity of the ballot box."  I'm so impressed.

Grimes is benefiting, though, from the anti-incumbent mood, which is hurting candidates of both parties.  We'll look for a nail-biter.  Too close to call at this point.

October 13, 2014